AGP Executive Report

Onion Price Support: India raised onion procurement for the Price Stabilisation Buffer by 13% to Rs 2,125/quintal from July 4, aiming to lift farmer returns and strengthen buffer stock as mandi arrivals stay robust. E20 Ethanol Backlash: India moved to calm public anger over its E20 petrol rollout after an “experiment” remark by the Attorney-General sparked protests and social-media fears; ministers and industry veterans reiterated E20 is tested, safe, and tied to lower crude imports and higher farm demand. Next Biofuel Step: Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari said India is working toward up to 15% isobutanol blending in diesel to cut crude dependence, with trials already underway for engines and equipment. Soybean Trade Signals: U.S. soybean farmers see slightly brighter prospects as China resumes buying after a purchasing freeze, but USDA data suggests volumes are still far from pre-trade-war levels. Climate-Driven Food Security: In the Philippines, experts urged stronger disaster-ready, nutritious food supplies as Super El Niño threatens drought and staple crop output, including calls for resilient, shelf-stable options. Farm Tech in Indonesia: Indonesia is modernising rice production in South Papua, using drones, transplanters and mechanised harvesting to raise cropping intensity and yields. Agrivoltaics in the Philippines: A Batangas agrivoltaics project is moving beyond pilots by combining solar generation with crop production, targeting coexistence of energy and farming.

Philippines Rice Policy: The Philippines plans to prioritize higher-quality, softer-textured, higher-yield rice seeds to protect farmer incomes as El Niño pressure builds, while also temporarily halting rice imports to steady prices ahead of the 2027 planting cycle. Nepal Tea Exports: Nepal is shifting from an India-led disruption after tighter tea testing to a dual track of quality upgrades and market diversification, with China, Pakistan, the US and Europe flagged as alternatives. India Ethanol Push: Toyota’s Vikram Gulati says E20 is set to become the standard compatible fuel, while the government faces mounting public backlash after “experiment” remarks over ethanol-mixed petrol. Climate Risk for Crops: India’s El Niño advisories urge farmers to switch toward low-water, drought-tolerant crops, as Telangana warns of delayed sowing and reduced rainfall. Water & Irrigation Governance: Andhra Pradesh vows to restore lift irrigation systems, while Gujarat raises compensation for farmers affected by power transmission land use. Arid-Land Farming Breakthrough: China reports hybrid wheat yields near the Taklamakan Desert’s edge, showing progress in desert-edge grain production. Coastal Cleanup Prep: St Kitts and Nevis starts equipping tractors for a UNDP-backed sargassum management project to protect marine ecosystems and livelihoods.

El Niño & Monsoon Watch: India’s Centre reviewed below-normal rainfall risks and drought preparedness tied to El Niño, urging states to guide farmers on what to sow as monsoon advances but remains uneven. Food Prices: FAO reported global food prices fell for a second straight month in June, with drops in cereals and sugar offsetting rises in rice, meat and oils. Ethanol Fuel Politics: India moved to calm backlash over mandatory E20 petrol after viral “experiment” remarks, reiterating ethanol uses surplus rice and has safeguards. Forest Cash Crops: Palpa (Nepal) said cinnamon exports to India hit a six-year high, alongside higher bay leaf shipments. Tea Market Diversification: Nepal’s tea exports to India resumed after testing rules were eased, but officials are pushing quality upgrades and new markets beyond India. Energy for Resilience: Bhutan secured ADB backing for solar expansion and new transmission links to cut winter import dependence. Agri-Industry & Trade: CII urged market-driven scaling of India’s compressed biogas via GST rationalisation and offtake support; meanwhile, India’s Board of Trade projected 17% merchandise export growth and 11% services growth.

Cocoa Crisis: West Africa’s smallholder cocoa farmers are getting crushed as global prices plunge from near $13,000/ton in 2024 to about $3,000/ton by April 2026, forcing Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana to cut farmgate prices and raising fears of farm income collapse. Climate-Security Pressure: Pacific leaders at Fiji’s peace and security dialogue warn climate damage and instability are straining small island states, pushing for a Pacific Resilience Facility and faster climate finance access. Water & Wetlands Conservation: Mexico City’s Xochimilco canal system and axolotl habitat face renewed conservation efforts, with critics pointing to weak enforcement despite multiple protection frameworks. Biosecurity Alert: Australia’s bird flu-free status has ended as H5N1 is confirmed in migratory birds, with implications for poultry and wildlife. Farm Tech in Asia: Thailand’s sugar belt gets AI crop intelligence via Farmdar to improve cane estimates and cut-to-crush planning. Policy for Farmers: Maharashtra unanimously passed a Women Farmers Empowerment Bill to formally recognize women as farmers and unlock welfare schemes. Agronomy Breakthrough: China’s drought-tolerant desert wheat trial in the Taklamakan produced nearly double the national average yield, with potential for expansion in arid regions.

Poultry & Pollution Dispute (Malaysia): Selama residents in Perak are urging authorities to reconsider a new closed-house poultry farm, saying they weren’t informed before land clearing and that the area already suffers from flies, foul odours and pollution. Edible Oil Breeding (India): ICAR’s AICRP-G, with ICRISAT partners, has identified two new high-oleic groundnut varieties (ICGV 201214, ICGV 181030) for release, aiming to lift farmer incomes and improve India’s edible-oil self-reliance. Rice Prices & Planting Delays (Asia): Indian rice export prices edged up as below-normal June rainfall slowed transplanting; farmers planted less area than last year, while Vietnam’s supplies stayed competitive. Monsoon Watch (India): The southwest monsoon has reached Delhi and expanded across northern and western states, with light-to-moderate rain and thunderstorms expected—good news for kharif sowing, but with flooding risk. Aquaculture Growth (FAO): FAO’s SOFIA reports farmed aquatic production has topped 100 million tonnes annually, pushing aquaculture trade value close to land meat. Research Cooperation (Seychelles-India): ICAR and Seychelles’ agriculture ministry signed an MoU and 2026–2031 work plan covering climate-smart farming, horticulture, post-harvest, livestock and capacity building. Water-Energy for Wheat (Zimbabwe): Zimbabwe ring-fenced 150MW for winter wheat irrigation, targeting 125,000 hectares to strengthen food security.

Fertiliser Fraud Probe (Punjab, India): Khanna Police have booked MILKFED officials and private firm owners over alleged diversion of subsidised neem-coated urea meant for farmers, with an SIT formed to investigate. Monsoon & Food Cost Risk (Asia): Reports warn El Niño could intensify and pile pressure on Asean food prices, as dry weather meets fertiliser and energy shocks. Trade & Farm Policy Tension (India–US): An interim U.S.–India trade deal is seen as nearing, with agriculture protections and tariff escalation still central to negotiations. Digital Payments for Farmers & Trade (India–Greece): India’s UPI went live in Greece via Eurobank, adding momentum to Digital India’s cross-border push that can support commerce and payments. Agri Research Links (India–Seychelles): ICAR and Seychelles’ agriculture ministry signed an MoU and 2026–2031 work plan focused on climate-smart farming, horticulture, post-harvest, and livestock. Aquaculture Health (Thailand): Thai shrimp producers urged urgent government action to tackle disease and restore exports, calling for a 2026–2030 national action plan. Water Stress on Farms (Pakistan): Chenab River erosion in Sialkot’s Bajwat area is washing away farmland and nearing homes, with locals demanding preventive action. Glyphosate Trade Fight (US–China): Bayer petitioned for antidumping tariffs on Chinese glyphosate, drawing backlash from farmer groups worried about higher herbicide costs.

Monsoon Shock to Crops: India’s IMD warns July rainfall will be below normal (under 94% of average) after June turned the driest in over a decade, raising heat and water-stress risks for Kharif sowing. Fertilizer Supply Push: Nepal plans to import about 210,000 tonnes of chemical fertilizer by mid-August, including urea from India, while setting up hotlines to curb black marketing. Aquaculture Expansion in Kashmir: Khyber Group launched a Rs 100-crore, RAS-based Himalayan trout facility in Ganderbal, aiming to scale output and link farmers to processing and export supply chains. Farm Income Under Pressure: Illinois farm bankruptcies rose for a third straight year, with rising debt and stress showing up in filings and insurance buying. China Mango Value Chain: In Guangxi’s mango belt, e-commerce and mechanization are helping farmers sell better, but post-harvest handling remains the bottleneck. Agri-Research Links: ICAR and Seychelles’ agriculture ministry signed a MoU to boost climate-smart farming, horticulture, post-harvest work, and livestock research. Tech Meets Farming: Syngenta, McDonald’s and McCain are partnering to modernize China’s potato supply chain with precision farming and smarter monitoring. Climate Risk for Rice: El Niño is expected to strengthen later this year, with analysts warning it could disrupt Asian rice supplies and food prices.

Purple Yam Boom: Philippines’ ube demand is surging, but local output has fallen from 15,000 tons (2021) to 12,483 (2025), pushing imports from Vietnam as the country tries to cut its farm trade gap. Mongolia Agri Investment Push: Mongolia hosted its Agri-Investment Forum 2026 with FAO and partners to attract food and agriculture investment, citing the sector’s big GDP and jobs role. Rural Jobs Boost in India: India’s VB-G RAM G Act starts nationwide, raising the rural wage guarantee from 100 to 125 days to support livelihoods and village assets. Monsoon Stress Watch: India logged a 40% June rainfall deficit and kharif sowing slowed due to dry soils; forecasters say the next 15 days are key for monsoon revival. Water Tensions: Pakistan and India trade warnings over Indus Waters Treaty actions, with calls for legal and diplomatic safeguards. Farm Finance Pressure (US): Illinois farm bankruptcies rose again, reflecting wider strain on farm incomes. Agri Trade Corridor (Cambodia-Laos): Cambodia and Laos launched a transit route to ship six key crops to China, starting with fresh durian containers. Glyphosate Trade Fight: Bayer/Monsanto asked the US for duties on Chinese glyphosate, angering US farmers over higher input costs. Japan Rice Slump: Japan’s 2025 harvest rice sales to wholesalers hit a record low as demand shifts to cheaper stockpiled and imported rice.

Indus Water Treaty Tensions: Pakistan’s former NDU Lt Gen Amir Riaz and PPP leaders warned that any move to block Indus flows would hit Pakistan’s irrigation, farming and energy, calling water a “lifeline” and urging dialogue. Monsoon Shock for Farms: India’s monsoon is forecast below normal for July after a fifth-driest June on record; the Finance Ministry flags water buffers as a top priority as kharif sowing falls and reservoir storage stays low. Ethanol Policy in Court: India’s Supreme Court ordered status quo on ethanol allocation for ESY 2025-26, pausing a Karnataka High Court direction that could have reshaped the E20 blending rollout. Fertilizer Cost Pressure: US market news points to phosphate duty relief from Morocco (analysts say price drops depend on supply reaching US shelves), while Pacific Northwest fertilizer prices climbed again amid Hormuz-linked supply worries. Trade Signal for Soybeans: China made its first U.S. soybean purchase for the new marketing year, a cautious start that still leaves delivery timing and volumes uncertain. Farm Tech & Water Access: Uganda launched a Japanese drought/heat crop treatment (Skeepon) to help farmers withstand dry spells, while China-backed water projects in southern Chad are expanding wells and safe water systems. Horticulture Updates: Japan’s Zentsuji growers began shipping ornamental square watermelons for summer décor, while India’s farm labor matching platform in Nashik aims to lift incomes by improving hiring predictability.

Water & Food Security: India’s Dal Lake in Kashmir is facing faster decline as pollution, invasive plants and climate-driven heat threaten long-term survival, with workers using gloves to avoid irritation while sewage and debris keep flowing in. Climate Risk for Asia Farms: El Niño is strengthening, and forecasters warn it could disrupt monsoons and hit rice hardest across Asia, raising the odds of food price stress. Water Conservation in India: South Gujarat’s Ridge-to-Valley model under Jal Shakti is building check dams and forest ponds, boosting groundwater recharge and helping farmers irrigate. Farm Safety & Rural Livelihoods: In Nepal’s Jhapa, wild elephants are delaying paddy transplanting as families stay awake to protect themselves. Agri-Tech & Small Producers: China’s XAG is showcasing farm robotics and smart systems, while West Bengal’s Gachwala launched an oyster mushroom ready-to-harvest kit for home cultivation. Trade & Produce Flows: South Africa’s apple and pear exports to China jumped, with Guangzhou pop-ups boosting demand during peak season. Policy & Farming Inputs: India’s Bharatiya Kisan Sangh is pushing for fourfold compensation for land acquired for infrastructure and calls for tighter checks on food safety. Rural Development in China: China is rolling out an action plan to upgrade rural reading services without big new construction, aiming to better meet villagers’ needs.

Agri-Innovation (India): UPES and IIT Guwahati launched the 18-month SPARC-AI programme to fund and incubate 50 student innovators in AI-driven clean energy, agritech and cleantech across Uttarakhand and Assam. Grain Quality Upgrade (Philippines): The National Food Authority and Japan/JICA are modernizing the Philippines’ grain-testing system with lab upgrades, new protocols and training through 2028. Water Cooperation (India–Saudi): India and Saudi Arabia signed an MoU on water resource management at Saudi Water Week to share best practices in planning, irrigation and sustainable water management. Rural Scheme Delivery (India): Shivraj Singh Chouhan urged states to use AI and digital tools for transparency and better delivery under the Viksit Bharat–GRAM G rollout from July 1. Monsoon Impact on Crops (India): Reuters reports summer crop planting is behind due to a slow monsoon start, with rice, soybeans, corn and cotton all down year-on-year. Fisheries Pressure (Global): FAO warns habitat loss, pollution and climate change are eroding fish stock sustainability even as aquaculture output hits new highs. Weather Risk (India): Karnataka issued an Orange Alert for coastal districts, advising farmers to suspend field work during heavy rain and strong winds. Indus Waters Tensions (Pakistan–India): Pakistan escalated the Indus Waters Treaty dispute internationally, while Pakistan’s ministers said the treaty can’t be unilaterally changed and announced an Islamabad seminar.

Climate Risk for Farmers: Philippines peasant group Katarungan urged urgent action as El Niño may intensify to very strong levels and last into early 2027, warning of crop failures and deeper rural food insecurity. Coastal Livelihoods: India’s ECRICC project is helping Odisha mud-crab farmers shift to scientific, climate-resilient aquaculture and cut distress migration. Trade & Food Processing Investment: Andhra Pradesh approved a 70-acre, Rs 370-crore Patanjali Food Park in Vizianagaram, aiming to make 500+ food and herbal products using local pulses, spices and millets. Aqua Exports Hit by West Asia Conflict: Shipping disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict are hurting Kakinada’s prawn processing SEZ, with about 5,400 workers reportedly laid off. Regional Heat Stress: Southeast Asia is facing longer, more dangerous humid heatwaves, with wet-bulb conditions pushing human limits for months in some areas. India–Seychelles Agri Link: PM Modi’s Seychelles visit produced 19 outcomes, including cooperation spanning agriculture, digital payments and healthcare, plus a USD 175m special economic package. Soil Salinity Breakthrough: Researchers found soil microbes that can help crops like maize, tomato and rapeseed survive salty farmland. Agrivalue & Markets: India’s GI mango push continues, with events and pavilion activity supporting exporters in the US market.

El Niño and farm risk: India’s monsoon anxiety is rising as El Niño threatens weaker rains, pushing farmers toward costlier irrigation and stressing groundwater; the government is drafting contingency plans for rainfall-deficit regions. Seed supply logistics: Private seed firms say they hold 20–30% surplus for kharif, but timely delivery to rain-deficient districts is the main bottleneck as planting windows near. Fertilizer push in India: Nigeria’s Ogah distributes 5,000 bags of fertiliser, rice seedlings and cash to farmers in Ebonyi, highlighting how local support is trying to cushion seasonal shocks. Tomato price relief (Nigeria): Nigeria’s tomato prices are expected to ease from late July as wet-season harvest begins; farmers are also adopting flood-resistant varieties to keep supply steadier. Climate impacts on wildlife (India): A study warns chinkara could lose 89–96% of suitable habitat by 2070 under worst-case warming, flagging a dryland biodiversity emergency. India–Seychelles agri ties: India and Seychelles signed pacts covering trade, digital payments and agriculture, with India also pitching its “Ocean of Opportunity” MAHASAGAR vision. Weather tragedy (India): A lightning strike in Madhya Pradesh killed one woman and injured six others while they worked in a field. Export boost (India): GI-tagged Rewa Sundarja mangoes reached UAE markets via an APEDA-supported chain, lifting farmgate prices by up to ₹50/kg versus domestic rates. China agri tech trade (Pakistan): Chinese firms at CISCE showcased tractors, smart irrigation and high-yield rice seeds for Pakistan’s farm upgrading, with exports and water-saving projects highlighted. China energy backdrop: China’s non-fossil power share keeps climbing, including offshore wind expansion—an indirect signal for future farm energy and irrigation resilience.

Assam Tea Support: Assam’s small tea growers can now register on the Farmers’ Registry Portal and get Farmer IDs to access fertiliser, scheme benefits and better institutional credit—aimed at cutting middlemen and boosting a sector that supplies nearly half the state’s tea. Water Security & Farming Risk: India’s Indus Waters Treaty suspension is reigniting debate on shared river management, while a new study warns human irrigation and groundwater pumping can cause major hidden water losses, making some water availability estimates overly optimistic. Monsoon Disruption Watch: India’s IMD has issued an orange alert for four Kerala districts with very heavy rain likely through early July, raising flood and farm risk. Pakistan Ag Modernisation: Pakistan approved a National Agricultural Biotechnology Policy, setting a path for science-led seed systems and productivity gains, with implementation now the key challenge. China–Pakistan Ag Tech Push: Chinese firms at CISCE say tractors, smart irrigation and high-yield rice seeds are helping Pakistan upgrade farming and save water. Farm Governance Tension (Kerala): A political row erupted after the Kerala Governor appointed a BJP-linked academic as Kerala Agricultural University VC, with the state planning to challenge it in court. Market & Value-Add: North Kerala cashew farmers are turning cashew apples into juice and pulp, finding strong demand and new income beyond kernels. Regional Tech for Resilience: China and Central Asian partners signed a satellite constellation plan for disaster monitoring, including earthquakes, glacial floods and agricultural pests.

Smart Farming Push (Indonesia): Indonesia’s PM-AAS system says it can lift rice productivity to 12.4 tons per hectare by combining jajar legowo planting, modern cultivation, and precision agriculture to cut input costs while boosting yields. Protected Cultivation (China): Hotan’s greenhouses in Xinjiang use automated climate control, drip irrigation, and intelligent water management to grow vegetables and fruits year-round for steadier food supply in harsh desert conditions. Arid-Region Agriculture (China): A report highlights Ningxia’s “green revolution,” where smart greenhouses and tech-linked farming help deliver two harvests a year and support exports. Disaster Monitoring Tech (China & Central Asia): China and Central Asian partners sign a plan for the “Tianwu Constellation” satellite network to share remote-sensing data for earthquakes, agricultural pests, and glacial flood risks. Farm Safety (India): A farmer in Medak, India, dies after being struck by lightning while repairing an agricultural borewell. Trade & Policy Watch (India–US): India is reportedly seeking a “sunset clause” in an interim trade deal as Washington’s policy direction stays uncertain. Food Security Risk (El Niño): Coverage warns El Niño could disrupt planting and harvests across Asia-Pacific, feeding into food-market volatility. Market/Export Signal (India): GI-tagged Rewa Sundarja mango exports to the UAE get a boost via first commercial shipments, aiming to raise farmer earnings.

Weather & Farm Disruption: India’s IMD issued heavy rain warnings for Tamil Nadu’s Chennai, Tiruvallur, Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Kancheepuram and Chengalpattu, with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds; coastal fishing advisories and swell alerts were also flagged. Water Security: Bangladesh-China Teesta cooperation and India’s suspended Indus Waters Treaty both keep water politics in focus, with analysts warning that rhetoric may be high even as farmers and regions face real supply risks. Digital Agriculture Push: ITC outlined plans to reach 1 crore farmers by 2030 via its ITCMAARS platform, aiming to lift yields and incomes; a separate report argues agribusinesses still underinvest in the “software layer” that turns farm data into decisions. Farmer Support & Innovation: Foodwize launched STHIRA 2026, a virtual incubation for university teams tackling nutrition, food waste, resilient supply chains and local food systems. Livestock/Ag Biosecurity: Japan suspects unauthorized sale of homegrown seedlings in China and South Korea, prompting calls for stronger plant variety protection enforcement. Regional Climate Pressure: El Niño-linked uncertainty is expected to squeeze India’s sugar and maize supplies, potentially pushing rice-based ethanol output to meet E20 blending needs.